General Circulation Models or Global Climate Models – aka GCMs – often have a bad reputation outside of the climate science community. Some of it isn’t deserved. We could say that models are misunderstood. Before we look at models on the catwalk, let’s just consider a few basics Introduction In an earlier series, CO2 – [...]
Archive for February, 2010
Models, On – and Off – the Catwalk – Part One
Posted in Climate Models on February 27, 2010 | 20 Comments »
Radiative Forcing, Thermal Lag and Equilibrium Temperatures
Posted in Climate Models on February 24, 2010 | 19 Comments »
We cover some basics in this post. The subject was inspired by one commenter on the blog. When we look at a “radiative forcing” what does it mean? What immediate and long-term impact does it have on temperature? What is the new equilibrium temperature? Radiative Forcing The IPCC, drawing on the work of many physicists [...]
Here Comes the Sun
Posted in Climate Models, Measurement on February 23, 2010 | 22 Comments »
In the series CO2 – An Insignificant Trace Gas? we concluded (in Part Seven!) with the values of “radiative forcing” as calculated for the current level of CO2 compared to pre-industrial levels. That value is essentially a top of atmosphere (TOA) increase in longwave radiation. The value from CO2 is 1.7 W/m2. And taking into account [...]
CO2 – An Insignificant Trace Gas? Part Seven – The Boring Numbers
Posted in Climate Models on February 19, 2010 | 69 Comments »
Recap In Part Five we finally got around to seeing our first calculations by looking at two important papers which used “numerical methods” – 1-dimensional models – to calculate the first order effect from CO2. And to separate out the respective contribution of water vapor and CO2. Both papers were interesting in their own way. [...]
The Earth’s Energy Budget – Part Two
Posted in Climate Models, Measurement on February 18, 2010 | 23 Comments »
In Part One we looked at a few basic numbers and how to compare “apples with oranges” – or the solar radiation in vs the earth’s longwave radiation going out. And in Part One I said: Energy radiated out from the climate system must balance the energy received from the sun. This is energy balance. [...]
Ghosts of Climates Past
Posted in Climate History on February 16, 2010 | 14 Comments »
For many approaching the climate debate it is a huge shock to find out how much our climate has varied in the past. Even Prince Charles is allegedly confused about it: Well, if it is but a myth, and the global scientific community is involved in some sort of conspiracy, why is it then that [...]
CO2 Can’t have that Effect Because..
Posted in Climate Models on February 15, 2010 | 98 Comments »
After posting some comments on various blogs and seeing the replies I realized that a page like this was necessary. For people who’ve just arrived at this page, you might be asking: What effect? -which in itself is one of the most important questions, but let’s not jump ahead.. The background is the series CO2 [...]
Predictability? With a Pinch of Salt please.. Part One
Posted in Climate Models on February 13, 2010 | 7 Comments »
Introduction There are two themes in current “consensus” climate science. Perhaps it’s not apparent that they are contradictory.. One side – climate is predictable The other – “tipping” points ahead, perhaps very close This subject isn’t easy to untangle and no one really knows what the answer is. What this post is about is one [...]
The Confirmation Bias – Or Why None of Us are Really Skeptics
Posted in Commentary on February 12, 2010 | 4 Comments »
Perhaps I should say most of us are not really skeptics. The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is such a well-written book. One of his subjects is the confirmation bias. Consider a scientific theory. Most people coming to this blog are probably interested in science in some shape or form and know that for [...]
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New Theory Proves AGW Wrong!
Posted in Commentary on February 26, 2010 | 38 Comments »
I did think about starting this post by pasting in some unrelated yet incomprehensible maths that only a valiant few would recognize, and finish with: And so, the theory is overturned But that might have put off many readers from making it past the equations, which would have been a shame, even though the idea [...]
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