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This article follows: Part One – which explained a few basics in energy received and absorbed, and gave a few useful “numbers” to remember Part Two – which explained energy balance a little more Part Three – which explained how the earth radiated away energy and how more “greenhouse” gases might change that What is […]

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A couple of recent articles covered ground related to clouds, but under Models –Models, On – and Off – the Catwalk – Part Seven – Resolution & Convection & Part Five – More on Tuning & the Magic Behind the Scenes. In the first article Andrew Dessler, day job climate scientist, made a few comments and in one comment […]

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[I started writing this some time ago and got side-tracked, initially because aerosol interaction in clouds and rainfall is quite fascinating with lots of current research and then because there are many papers on higher resolution simulations of convection that also looked interesting.. so decided to post it less than complete because it will be some time before […]

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The subject of EMICs – Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity – came up in recent comments on Ghosts of Climates Past – Eleven – End of the Last Ice age. I promised to write something about EMICs, in part because of my memory of a more recent paper on EMICs. This article will just be short as I […]

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In Part Seven we had a look at a 2008 paper by Gettelman & Fu which assessed models vs measurements for water vapor in the upper troposphere. In this article we will look at a 2010 paper by Chung, Yeomans & Soden. This paper studies outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) vs temperature change, for clear skies only, in three […]

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In one stereotypical view of climate, the climate state has some variability over a 30 year period – we could call this multi-decadal variability “noise” – but it is otherwise fixed by the external conditions, the “external forcings”. This doesn’t really match up with climate history, but climate models have mostly struggled to do much more than reproduce […]

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In Ensemble Forecasting we had a look at the principles behind “ensembles of initial conditions” and “ensembles of parameters” in forecasting weather. Climate models are a little different from weather forecasting models but use the same physics and the same framework. A lot of people, including me, have questions about “tuning” climate models. While looking for what the latest IPCC report (AR5) had […]

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In Part Seven – GCM I  through Part Ten – GCM IV we looked at GCM simulations of ice ages. These were mostly attempts at “glacial inception”, that is, starting an ice age. But we also saw a simulation of the last 120 kyrs which attempted to model a complete ice age cycle including the last termination. As […]

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A while ago, in Part Three – Hays, Imbrie & Shackleton we looked at a seminal paper from 1976. In that paper, the data now stretched back far enough in time for the authors to demonstrate something of great importance. They showed that changes in ice volume recorded by isotopes in deep ocean cores (see Seventeen – Proxies under Water I) […]

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In Part Eleven we looked at the end of the last ice age. We mainly reviewed Shakun et al 2012, who provided some very interesting data on the timing of Southern Hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere temperatures, along with atmospheric CO2 values – in brief, the SH starts to heat up, then CO2 increases very close in […]

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