In #1 – #6 we looked at trends in tropical cyclones from chapter 11 on extreme weather of the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6), with a summary article.
Now we’ll take a look at Extreme Rainfall. It’s needed to understand changes in floods.
There are a number of ways to characterize extreme rainfall – so it’s more complicated than something like annual rainfall which only has one number.
The idea is that even without annual rainfall changing there can be a shift towards more rainfall falling in a given day or a short period – more dry days, more intense rainfall on fewer rainfall days. If you have more extreme rainfall you have more chance of floods.
Warm air holds more moisture, so in a warmer climate we expect more rainfall. The actual physics is more complicated as another factor pushes the other way. A topic for another day. This article is about trends – what do we observe?
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