In #1-6 we looked at trends in Tropical Cyclones. In #7-#9 we looked at trends in extreme rainfall and floods.
Now we move onto droughts.
The simplest idea about droughts is they occur when there’s a drop in rainfall over some time period.
Rainfall is relatively easy to measure. However, as a caveat, the world is a big place and different datasets have differences.
Now suppose the rainfall in a given region is the same this year as 50 years ago, but it’s 2°C warmer. More water will evaporate from the surface. In some cases this will lead to more droughts than 50 years ago.
So we can’t just look at the easy measurement of rainfall. We need to measure evaporation. That’s a lot harder as we don’t have measurements.
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“… but it’s 2°C warmer. More water will evaporate from the surface.”
It is not that simple. The evaporation rate also depends on how fast the saturated air is blown away by wind.
You are right.
I’m trying to keep it simple at this stage. That is, it’s not just about rainfall.
If everything else stays the same, and temperature goes up, more regions will go into drought.
There is a huge complexity in calculating droughts. Different calculations give different results. Different datasets but using the same calculations give different results..
All for future articles.