For those interested, I’ve been using a mindmap to try and keep on top of all of the different papers and ideas. It’s a work in progress. The iPad app produces a pdf output but not a scalable graphic (just a blurred one).
Lots of papers and extracts:
Articles in the Series
Part One – An introduction
Part Two – Lorenz – one point of view from the exceptional E.N. Lorenz
Part Three – Hays, Imbrie & Shackleton – how everyone got onto the Milankovitch theory
Part Four – Understanding Orbits, Seasons and Stuff – how the wobbles and movements of the earth’s orbit affect incoming solar radiation
Part Five – Obliquity & Precession Changes – and in a bit more detail
Part Six – “Hypotheses Abound” – lots of different theories that confusingly go by the same name
Part Seven – GCM I – early work with climate models to try and get “perennial snow cover” at high latitudes to start an ice age around 116,000 years ago
Part Eight – GCM II – more recent work from the “noughties” – GCM results plus EMIC (earth models of intermediate complexity) again trying to produce perennial snow cover
Part Nine – GCM III – very recent work from 2012, a full GCM, with reduced spatial resolution and speeding up external forcings by a factors of 10, modeling the last 120 kyrs
Part Ten – GCM IV – very recent work from 2012, a high resolution GCM called CCSM4, producing glacial inception at 115 kyrs
Pop Quiz: End of An Ice Age – a chance for people to test their ideas about whether solar insolation is the factor that ended the last ice age
Eleven – End of the Last Ice age – latest data showing relationship between Southern Hemisphere temperatures, global temperatures and CO2
Twelve – GCM V – Ice Age Termination – very recent work from He et al 2013, using a high resolution GCM (CCSM3) to analyze the end of the last ice age and the complex link between Antarctic and Greenland
Thirteen – Terminator II – looking at the date of Termination II, the end of the penultimate ice age – and implications for the cause of Termination II
Here’s another paper for your hopper. Apparently the temperature in the Bay of Biscay controls precipitation in the Arctic.
There has been some recent progress in producing glacial inception under a GCM. For practicality, Jochum et al used initial conditions from 1850, then ran two simulations with CCSM4: a control with orbital parameters from 1990, and an experiment with orbital parameters from 115kya. The latter showed increased snow and ice patterns similar to those that the geological record indicates preceded the last glaciation. Alas, the team didn’t have the computer resources to run the simulation for more than 300 years beyond spinup to see whether it would yield full-blown glaciation. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/markus/icepub.pdf .
Meow,
You are correct, there has been progress. As we will see in the next article many papers show modeling results producing “perennial snow cover” by holding orbital conditions at 115kyrs BP.
To me, the journey that climate models have gone through – and the results on this journey – is more interesting than one specific paper.
1. Is the lack of producing perennial snow cover the falsification of that model?
2. If the model that produces perennial snow cover at 115 kyr BP cannot produce it at the previous glacial inception is that a falsification of the model?
3. If the model that produced perennial snow cover at 115 kyr BP cannot terminate the previous ice age and start the Eemian inter-glacial is that a falsification of the model?
Of course, there are many more problems that need resolving as we will see..
And if Model A with correct physics cannot produce perennial snow cover at 115 ky BP and Model B with correct physics can – does that mean Model B with the right result should be preferred over Model A for evaluation of current forecasts?
Or is the answer to this question less obvious?
Artigo muito bom, ele foi capaz de explicar a ideia central do assunto muito bem.
Muito boa leitura, agora eu sei mais sobre isso.
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