We compared the rate of change of ice volume – as measured in the Huybers 2007 dataset – with summer insolation at 65ºN. The results were interesting, the results correlated very well for the first 200 kyrs, then drifted out of phase. As a result the (Pearson) correlation over 500 kyrs was very low, but quite decent for the first 200 kyrs.
Without any further data we might assume that the results demonstrated that the dataset without “orbital tuning” – and a lack of objective radiometric dating – was drifting away from reality as time went on, and an “orbitally tuned” dataset was the best approach. We would definitely expect that older dates have more uncertainty, as errors accumulate when we use any kind of model for time vs depth.
However, in an earlier article we looked at more objective dates for Termination II (and also in the comments, at some earlier terminations). These dates were obtained via radiometric dating from a variety of locations and methods.
So I wondered:
What happens if we take a dataset like Huybers 2007 and “remap” it using agemarkers?
This is basically how most of the ice core datasets are constructed, although the methods are more sophisticated (see note 1).
For my rough and ready approach I simply provided a set of termination dates (halfway point of ice volume from peak glacial to peak interglacial) from both Huybers and from Winograd et al 1992. Then I remapped the timebase for the existing Huybers proxy data between each set of agemarkers.
It’s probably easier to show the before and after comparison, rather than explain the method further. Note the low point between 100 and 150 kyrs BP. This corresponds to less ice, it is the interglacial:
The method is basically a linear remapping. I’m sure there are better ways, but I don’t expect they would have a material impact on the outcome.
One point that’s important (with my very simple method) is the oldest agemarker we consider can cause an inconsistency (as there is nothing to constrain the dates between the last agemarker and the end date), which is why the first set below uses 270 kyrs.
T- III is dated by Winograd 1992 at 253 kyrs. So I picked a date shortly after that.
Here is the comparison of rate of change of ice volume with insolation, with the same conventions as in the last article. We can see that everything is nicely anti-correlated:
Figure 2 – Click to Expand
For comparison, the result (in the last article) from 0-200 kyrs BP without remapping the proxy dataset. We can see that everything is nicely correlated:
Figure 3 – Click to Expand
For the remapped data: correlation = -0.30. This is as negatively correlated to the insolation value as LR04 (an “orbitally-tuned” dataset) is positively correlated.
For interest I did the same exercise with a 0 – 200kyr BP timebase. This means everything from 140 kyrs – 200 yrs was not constrained by a revised T-III date. The result: correlation = 0. The interpretation is simple – the older data is not pulled out of alignment due to a later objective T-III date, so there is a better match of insolation with rate of change of ice volume for this older data.
Is there a conclusion? It’s surely staring us in the face so is left as an exercise for the interested student.
I have a headache.
Articles in the Series
Part One - An introduction
Part Two – Lorenz - one point of view from the exceptional E.N. Lorenz
Part Three – Hays, Imbrie & Shackleton - how everyone got onto the Milankovitch theory
Part Four – Understanding Orbits, Seasons and Stuff - how the wobbles and movements of the earth’s orbit affect incoming solar radiation
Part Five – Obliquity & Precession Changes - and in a bit more detail
Part Six – “Hypotheses Abound” - lots of different theories that confusingly go by the same name
Part Seven – GCM I - early work with climate models to try and get “perennial snow cover” at high latitudes to start an ice age around 116,000 years ago
Part Seven and a Half – Mindmap - my mind map at that time, with many of the papers I have been reviewing and categorizing plus key extracts from those papers
Part Eight – GCM II - more recent work from the “noughties” – GCM results plus EMIC (earth models of intermediate complexity) again trying to produce perennial snow cover
Part Nine – GCM III - very recent work from 2012, a full GCM, with reduced spatial resolution and speeding up external forcings by a factors of 10, modeling the last 120 kyrs
Part Ten – GCM IV - very recent work from 2012, a high resolution GCM called CCSM4, producing glacial inception at 115 kyrs
Pop Quiz: End of An Ice Age - a chance for people to test their ideas about whether solar insolation is the factor that ended the last ice age
Eleven – End of the Last Ice age - latest data showing relationship between Southern Hemisphere temperatures, global temperatures and CO2
Twelve – GCM V – Ice Age Termination - very recent work from He et al 2013, using a high resolution GCM (CCSM3) to analyze the end of the last ice age and the complex link between Antarctic and Greenland
Thirteen – Terminator II - looking at the date of Termination II, the end of the penultimate ice age – and implications for the cause of Termination II
Fourteen – Concepts & HD Data - getting a conceptual feel for the impacts of obliquity and precession, and some ice age datasets in high resolution
Fifteen – Roe vs Huybers - reviewing In Defence of Milankovitch, by Gerard Roe
Seventeen – Proxies under Water I - explaining the isotopic proxies and what they actually measure
Eighteen – “Probably Nonlinearity” of Unknown Origin - what is believed and what is put forward as evidence for the theory that ice age terminations were caused by orbital changes
Nineteen – Ice Sheet Models I - looking at the state of ice sheet models
In defense of Milankovitch, Gerard Roe, Geophysical Research Letters (2006) – free paper
Glacial variability over the last two million years: an extended depth-derived agemodel, continuous obliquity pacing, and the Pleistocene progression, Peter Huybers, Quaternary Science Reviews (2007) – free paper
Datasets for Huybers 2007 are here:
Continuous 500,000-Year Climate Record from Vein Calcite in Devils Hole, Nevada, Winograd, Coplen, Landwehr, Riggs, Ludwig, Szabo, Kolesar & Revesz, Science (1992) – paywall, but might be available with a free Science registration
Insolation data calculated from Jonathan Levine’s MATLAB program
Here is an extract from Parennin et al 2007, The EDC3 chronology for the EPICA Dome C ice core:
In this article, we present EDC3, the new 800 kyr age scale of the EPICA Dome C ice core, which is generated using a combination of various age markers and a glaciological model. It is constructed in three steps.
First, an age scale is created by applying an ice flow model at Dome C. Independent age markers are used to control several poorly known parameters of this model (such as the conditions at the base of the glacier), through an inverse method.
Second, the age scale is synchronised onto the new Greenlandic GICC05 age scale over three time periods: the last 6 kyr, the last deglaciation, and the Laschamp event (around 41 kyr BP).
Third, the age scale is corrected in the bottom ∼500 m (corresponding to the time period 400–800 kyr BP), where the model is unable to capture the complex ice flow pattern..